Monthly Archives: December 2011

German IFO Business Climate Index – Unexpected Improvement

December 20, 2011

  • The German IFO Business Climate Survey improved unexpectedly today
  • Germany has been able to shrug off the sovereign debt crisis better than any of the other large economies in the EU-17
  • Germany’s unemployment rate has trended lower throughout 2011 to a new low of 5.5% in October. This is clearly helping German sentiment.
  • In a world short on confidence, Germany is doing ok.
Share Button

Jim Rogers on Bloomberg News

December 15, 2011
  • Always entertaining whether you believe with Jim’s investment views or not.
  • Jim likes commodities (as always) with sugar being a good place to start (down 60% from the highs)
  • He didn’t mention cotton, which is down about the same amount.
  • Highlight:
    “What was your worst year?”

    “The year I met my first wife.”

    Share Button

    McDonald’s Sales Continue to Exhibit Strong Momentum

    December 8, 2011
    • McDonald’s reported global company SSS of +7.4% well ahead of consensus estimates.
    • US comp sales were +6.0%
    • European comp sales were +6.5%
    • Asia/African comp sales were +8.1%

    McDonald’s (MCD) continues to display tremendous momentum from remodeling restaurants, improving food quality, adding new menu items, and expanding store hours. While many companies are slowing sharply in Europe, McDonald’s showed acceleration from October trends to November. The world isn’t so bad, despite Europe’s crisis, that business anywhere and everywhere is falling off a cliff. It isn’t as bad in Europe as it was in the US during Q4 2008.

    Share Button

    Zumiez Zoooooooooms (ZUMZ) – High Short Interest Helps Fuel Rally

    December 2, 2011








    • Zumiez reported earnings yesterday which beat the first call consensus estimates of $0.45 vs. $0.42 expected
    • Gross margins were up and drove most of the earnings beat
    • Sales trends were also solid with Q3 same store sales of +6% and November same store sales of  +8.4%.
    • While ZUMZ results were solid, and ahead of expectations, a key factor in the surge is the high short interest.
    • Short interest as a % of the float is 25%, amounting to 14 days to cover.
    • The outsized tail risks to short positions are just as large as they are to long positions in this year’s manic markets.

    Share Button

    Search CJ’s

    Friends of CJ’s

    Since Sep 2011

    Contact CJ’s