Posts Tagged ‘ consensus ’

Economic Surprise Index – Has Been Improving Since June

November 30, 2011

The economic surprise index represents how macroeconomic indicators are reported relative to Wall Street economist consensus estimates. There was a big move down in April and May as estimates on the economic outlook were too high. Just the reverse has taken place since the summer. Economic forecasters have been too gloomy on the economy from August – November. Economic indicators are continuing to beat at present.

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Apple (AAPL) – Quarterly Earnings Preview

October 18, 2011

I expect a monster quarter out of Apple. I believe that Steve Job’s unfortunate death has led to a surge in support for Apple products. The beat is largely expected so the key will be do they beat by “enough” relative to Wall-Street consensus. Here are the past 8 quarters earnings beats relative to the Street:

  • Q3 11 (last quarter):   33%
  • Q2 11:   18%
  • Q1 11:   19%
  • Q4 10:   13%
  • Q3 10:   13%
  • Q2 10:   35%
  • Q1 10:   77%
  • Q4 09:   28%

Probably they need to beat by over 30% for the stock to march higher unabated.

Price targets generally range from $450-$550 for the stock

  • Sales consensus is $29.6B
  • EPS consensus is $7.31
  • EPS estimate range is:  $6.50 to highs of $7.80 or so

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