Apple (AAPL) – Quarterly Earnings Preview

October 18, 2011

I expect a monster quarter out of Apple. I believe that Steve Job’s unfortunate death has led to a surge in support for Apple products. The beat is largely expected so the key will be do they beat by “enough” relative to Wall-Street consensus. Here are the past 8 quarters earnings beats relative to the Street:

  • Q3 11 (last quarter):   33%
  • Q2 11:   18%
  • Q1 11:   19%
  • Q4 10:   13%
  • Q3 10:   13%
  • Q2 10:   35%
  • Q1 10:   77%
  • Q4 09:   28%

Probably they need to beat by over 30% for the stock to march higher unabated.

Price targets generally range from $450-$550 for the stock

  • Sales consensus is $29.6B
  • EPS consensus is $7.31
  • EPS estimate range is:  $6.50 to highs of $7.80 or so

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Intel (INTC) Q3 Earnings Preview

October 18, 2011

Intel (INTC) is at a juncture heading into earnings. The company has continually stated that they can be a growth company which will participate in the secular growth of emerging market technology adoption. Moreover at the corporate analyst day, a year and a half ago, Intel raised their longer term gross margin guidance from a range of 50-60% to 55-65%. In short, Wall Street still doesn’t believe Intel despite remaining on their plan for a number of quarters. The recent stock price multiple has drifted between about 8.5x-10.0x current year earnings for some time. Goldman Sachs semiconductor analysts, Jim Covello has had a sell rating on Intel for most of this year and is predicting a massive decline in gross margins next year. The company view is that despite heavy growth in CAPEX spendings gross margins will hang in at the middle part of the new (higher) range.

Heading into Q3, Intel shares have rallied to the high end of the recent trading range. We are getting closer and closer to 2012 guidance. If the bearish views on the street are to be correct, Intel will need to acknowledge a severe gross margin decline for next year. If Intel sticks to their view and current business trends persist next year, Wall Street earnings estimates are way too low and the stock poised for a breakout to $30.

Into Q3:

  • Company Sales Guidance $14.1B (+/- $500M)
  • Street consensus ($13.87B)
  • Gross Margin company guidance (63% GAAP, and 64% non-GAAP) +/- 2%
  • Street Gross Margin estimates generally range from 63%-64.3%
  • EPS consensus is for $0.61
  • Street range is generally $0.60-$0.62

Q4 guidance will be important

  • Normal sequential sales seasonality is for 6% growth in Q4
  • Wall Street consensus is for +2.5% growth
  • EPS for Q4 are estimates at $0.65

2012 the street is only expecting $2.44 which is 3% growth. If Intel continues the current business run-rate they could easily earn $2.60.


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Google (GOOG) – Q3 Earnings Preview

October 13, 2011

Google’s stock price (GOOG) has had large moves after the Q1 and Q2 earnings reports. Q1 the stock sold off because the growth rate of expenses appeared out of control and Larry Page spent about two minutes on the conference call. For the Q2 earnings report, revenue growth accelerated, expense were better controlled, and Larry Page stayed on the entire conference call and did a great job taking questions and elaborating on his vision for the company. After the Q2 earnings report the shares rallied 69 points from $528 to $597.

Heading into Q3 earnings tonight the shares are trading in the $550’s. There could be fast downside back to $500 or quick upside above $600 depending upon how the quarter goes. Here is what to look for:

Expectation ranges:

  • gross revenues: $9.0B to $9.4B
  • net revenues: $7.1B to $7.43B
  • TAC %: 75.0-76.0%
  • EBITDA: $3.85B – $4.0B
  • Pro-forma EPS: Consensus $8.76
  • Pro-forma EPS range: $8.50-$9.0

There will be considerable detail after the results and conference call posted on Crackerjack Finance:



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Safeway (SWY) Q3 Results Stable – Sales Continue to Improve

October 13, 2011

safewaySafeway (SWY) results continued to strengthen modestly in the recent quarter. While store traffic trends remained challenged the core identical store sale result improved from +0.5% in Q2 to +1.5% in Q3. The CEO, Steven Burd, highlighted that this metric has improved for 6 quarters in a row. Gross Margin was flat on the quarter and there was very modest expansion of the operating margins based on solid expense control. Expenses were tightly managed in the areas of shrink (less spoilage and stolen goods), labor costs, and depreciation. Interest expense was down year-over-year as the borrowing rates declined 40 bps and the debt outstanding was reduced from $5.3B to $5.0B. Even with a higher tax rate (34%) Safeway was able to grow earnings per share by 15%.

Safeway shares have drifted to the high-end of the recent range and opened up 6% this morning. The shares gave up the gains during the conference call and traded off 2%. Quite an intra-day turnaround but the fundamentals appear pretty sound and the volatility today looks like some profit taking, not an inflection point in any of the fundamentals. Steven Burd mentioned that the promotional environment is pretty stable which is a positive for the industry which includes Wal-Mart, Kroger, and the dollar stores. An interesting note from the q&a session, Burd said that through his talks with the consumer packaged goods CEOs there really isn’t much if any growth in the US and Canada and almost all of the growth is coming from emerging markets. The consumer products company which is most geared towards emerging markets is Colgate (CL) and the US food company which is most geared towards emerging markets is Heinz (HNZ).

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Pepsi (PEP) – A Constructive Quarter with Snacks and Emerging Markets Drving Growth

October 12, 2011

pepsiPepsi (PEP) is one of the first companies to report Q3 earnings. While the carbonated beverage business in North American is essentially a flat business (volumes grew 1% ex-acquisitions) the rest of Pepsi’s business showed some resiliency.  The non-US business, particularly in emerging markets is doing exceptionally well and the snack business (Frito-Lay) is also leading growth from both higher volumes and pricing power. Some growth rates which were discussed on the conference call for the international snack business:

EM Snack business volume growth:

  • China: +31%
  • India: +26%
  • Saudi Arabia: +24%
  • Egypt: +15%
  • Turkey: +22%
  • Russia: over 35%

EM beverage business is growing volumes between high single digit and double digits, and Gatorade volumes grew 9% around the world.

While Alcoa was disappointing, the materials sector is one of the worst positioned for the near term dynamics of strong dollar, lower commodity pricing, and slowing growth.

Pepsi had a very constructive call and the near-term technicals for the stock now look good. There are many stocks similarly positioned as we head into Q3 earnings.


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Slovakia is NOT going to take down the Eurozone

October 11, 2011

st paulie girlThe talk going around of a doomsday scenario where Slovakia takes down the Eurozone by failing to approve an increase to the EFSF is ridiculous. Perhaps there are many valid reasons to be bearish but this isn’t one of them. The Slovakian government may get over-hauled through this process but in the end, there will be a vote to go along with the rest of the 16 EU states that have voted to expand the EFSF.

For perspective, Slovakia has about 5.5M people. Slovakia has been talking tough because they only comprise about 0.7% of the EU-17 GDP yet are contributing 1.0% of the capital to the EFSF. This gives them a say but it isn’t reasonable to expect a Eurozone crisis because of any votes which take place in Slovakia for political gains.

In a worst case scenario I could see two options:

One: The rest of the EU-17 fund Slovakia’s 1% and they simply don’t contribute to a new restructured EFSF. Of course there would be a blackballing consequence and Slovakia’s economy would surely suffer.

Two: This derails the EFSF and leads to expanded powers at the ECB. The ECB doesn’t want a greater direct role but would take one to avoid a crisis.

I don’t think either of the above are necessary because ultimately whether on the first vote or the second vote Slovakia will come around and support an expanded EFSF. For now there are some political semantics going on.

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Zuoan Fashion (ZA) – Shares Jump 25%

October 10, 2011

I keep an eye on a lot of the Chinese ADRs in order to gauge market sentiment. The sector has been hammered (perhaps I need a stronger tool for my description) based on dual fears of corporate governance issues and a China hard landing.

While not invested in the space, I’ve pondered that the stocks can’t all be frauds. Listing via reverse merger transactions is certainly a major red flag but recently even the companies that went through actual IPOs and have real auditors have been demolished.

Zuoan Fashion (ZA) shares IPO’d at $7 last year and subsequently traded down to the $2s. The company operates high ROIC apparel concessions in Chinese department stores. Same store sales have been healthy and I take note today that the shares are up 25% today.

Last week, I highlighted budget hotel operator Home Inns (HMIN) when the shares sold off to $24. With the market rally they are trading at $28.50 today (+19% in seven trading days)

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Employment Report Observations

October 7, 2011
  • Unemployment rate stable at 9.1%
  • Solid private sector job creation: 137k jobs
  • Government sector contracting: 34k net job losses
  • Temp workers, which are forward looking: +48k
  • Household Survey job creations: +398k (though this includes part time)
  • Growth in average hourly earnings: +1.9%
  • Employment-Population ratio: improved by one tenth to 58.3
  • Hours worked improved by one tenth to: 34.3 hours per week

No evidence we are in a recession


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Costco Raising Membership Fees – Business Results Strong

October 5, 2011

costcoCostco just reported a strong 8% comp sales result excluding the FX impact and excluding gasoline inflation. On their quarterly conference call they are detailing the first membership fee increase in 5-years. Regular Gold Star memberships will go up by $5 to $55 effective November 1st. Gross margins at Costco were down slightly but were flat when you look at core merchandising gross margins ex gasoline.

Costco (COST) stock price is down 2% but with sales this strong and growth around the world the sell-off may be short lived. Costco is doing an incredible job opening highly productive units in Australia, Taiwan and Japan as the warehouse retail concept resonates around the world.

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Macau Gambling Revenues Grow 39%

October 4, 2011

china modelThe Macau gaming sector has been demolished as fears of credit tightening and distress amongst the junket operators mounts. Macau’s Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau just released that revenues for the month of September grew at a 39% rate. This is another data point which demonstrates that China Hard Landing fears are just that, fears. Contrast the strong growth to the Macau geared gaming stocks which have seen rapid declines as investors lost confidence in the space. Here are number of leaders and what the stock prices have sold off since September 1st. This may be an opportunity for investors willing to make a wager.

Wynn Resorts (WYNN) down 24%
Wynn Macau (1128.HK) down 35%
Las Vegas Sands (LVS) down 18%
Melco (200.HK) down 49%
Shun Tak Holdings (242.HK) down 40%
Galaxy Entertainment (27.HK) down 53%

*note that Shun Tak is the Macau ferry operator and also involved in Macau real estate

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